1.

Establishing the facts first: In the 2006 election cycle, a record number of Jewish legislators were elected: 30 House members, 13 Senators, 43 total. I believe that in a couple of days this record will no longer be a record. The new record will be 45. It can be even 46.

Like it or not, it’s a new and impressive all-time record for the 2% Jews living in America.

2.

Counting Jewish legislators might seem problematic or out of line to some people, but I can’t resist the temptation. I’ve already apologized, sort of, for doing that, as you can read here:

    Most people will say: it doesn’t matter. Some will even say: counting is a bad habit. For all those uncomfortable with it I’ll say: Go and read something else. But for the few, the brave, the neurotic I’ll say: Join this short ride. You might enjoy it.

3.

Now, time for my political projection:

There are 13 Jewish Senators. One of them, the Republican of Minnesota, Norm Coleman, is the only one who might not come back next year. However, his rival, comedian Al Franken, is also Jewish. Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey is also contested by a Jewish candidate (Dick Zimmer), but he’s going to win anyway. This means that 13 will the number of Jewish Senators next year. No change here.

Here’s the explanatory table:

senate-table1.gif

4.

In the House it gets a bit more complicated, but not very complicated.

30 Jewish legislators were elected to the House in 2006. One of them, Tom Lantos, died a couple of months ago. So now there are 29. Of these 29 legislators four seemed to be, for a while, in some danger of losing their seats (according to polls and analysis), but assuming that this will be a Democratic year (and there’s no great mystery here), it is safe to bet that even those four “likely Democrats” rather than “safe Democrats” - namely, races with the more competitive edge - will eventually prevail. They are all leading in the polls quite comfortably.

Here’s the table with the 29 Jewish House members now in office:

house-table

5.

So - we have 13 Jewish Senators + 29 Jewish House members. That’s one short of the 2006 record (because of Lantos’ death). This means that we need two more Jewish contenders to win their races in order to break the record. Again, in a Democratic year this is more than likely to happen.

Here’s a table of Jewish candidates who do not yet serve, followed by explanation:

newhouse-20081.jpg

A. Three Jewish candidates expected to win new seats can be found in New Jersey (John Adler), in Alaska (Ethan Berkowitz) and in Colorado (Jared Polis). If both of them win, 45 Jewish legislators will serve in Washington next year, an all time record.
B. Berkowitz is leading his rival by a comfortable margin. Adler is leading by similar margin. Polis runs in a Democratic district. Not a very tough call.

C. The other Jewish contenders are less likely to win, but in a Democratic year - if there’s a real tsunami - it’s also possible. Here are the polls for the less likely Lord, the even less likely rabbi Dennis Shulman and the highly competitive Trauner of Wyoming. If there’s a surprise in the making, Trauner might be the one to add yet another Jewish member to Congress, raising the total number to 46.

D. Some anecdotes: Eng is the first Jewish Chinese-American to run for Congress. Taddeo is the first Jewish of Latino origin (Colombian in her case) to run. Berkowitz will be the firat Jewish House member from Alaska. Polis is gay. Shulman is a blind rabbi.

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I started working on this analysis half a year ago, going through all Senate and House races, one by one, looking for Jewish candidates and consulting with many people. It could not have happened without also being helped by numerous publications, among them the Cook Political Report, Election Projection, the Rothenberg Political Report and Congressional Quarterly. If there’s a mistake, it’s mine. If I’m correct, it’s all because of them.